Elucidating heavy precipitation events

Friday, 29 November 2013

It is difficult to forecast heavy precipitation events accurately and reliably. The quality of these forecasts is affected by two processes whose relative importance has now been quantified by a team at the Laboratoire d'Aérologie (CNRS / Université Toulouse III–Paul Sabatier). The researchers have shown that these processes should be taken into account in low wind speed events. Their findings should help forecast these events, which repeatedly cause significant damage, especially in south-eastern France. They were first published online on November 28, 2013 in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Comparison of simulated precipitation (in mm) in two simulations carried out with the Meso-NH model for a heavy rainfall event on 6 September 2010. In the upper simulation, the value of the time tendency of raindrop evaporation was reduced by 50%; in the lower simulation, the value of the tendency was increased by 50%. © LA


Ensemble simulations with perturbed physical parameterisations: Pre-HyMEX case studies. Alan Hally, Evelyne Richard, Simon Fresnay and Dominique Lambert. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Article first published online: 28 NOV 2013. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2257

  • Alan Hally, GMME/CNRM
    alan [dot] hally [at] meteo [dot] fr, 05 61 07 96 32